In a Hudson Valley swing district, campaigns and outside groups have spent about $57 million on ads in the race between Republican Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley, according to a Times Union analysis of AdImpact and FEC data. That puts New York's 17th District among the most expensive House races in the country.
Farther north, the money has shifted in a surprising direction. National Democratic groups are now spending in the 21st District, an open seat President Trump carried by a landslide in 2024. Meanwhile, Republican spending has dropped sharply in two Hudson Valley districts the party contested heavily two years ago.
Here's where super PAC money is going in New York's competitive House races, based on Times Union reporting and FEC filings.
NY-17: The state's most expensive race
NY-17 is one of only three districts in the country that voted for Kamala Harris for president in 2024 while also electing a Republican to the House. Both parties consider it a top target.
| Spending in NY-17 | Amount | Side |
|---|---|---|
| Congressional Leadership Fund | $11.5M+ | For Lawler (R) |
| National Republican Congressional Committee | $3.4M | For Lawler (R) |
| Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee | $3.9M | For Conley (D) |
| House Majority PAC | $2.1M | For Conley (D) |
| Total pro-Lawler ad spending (campaign + groups) | $31.6M | |
| Total pro-Conley ad spending (campaign + groups) | $22.9M |
Source: Times Union, citing AdImpact and FEC data. Party committee figures are ad spending.
Lawler and his allies have spent about $8.7 million more on ads. Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House Republican super PAC, has spent more than five times as much as House Majority PAC, its Democratic counterpart. Former Rep. John Faso, a Republican, told the Times Union he expects Lawler to be "tough" to beat even in a difficult year for Republicans.
NY-21: A safe seat is suddenly competitive
The North Country district has been open since Rep. Elise Stefanik decided not to run again. In 2024, Stefanik won by 24 points, and her Democratic opponent spent less than $100,000. This year:
- Democrat Blake Gendebien, a dairy farmer, has spent more than $7.5 million.
- Republican Anthony Constantino, CEO of Sticker Mule, has put $17 million of his own money into his campaign. He had spent $14 million of it as of Sept. 30, including $9 million on advertising, according to FEC records.
Outside groups arrived late:
| Group | Spending in NY-21 | Side |
|---|---|---|
| House Majority PAC | $1.7M (announced last week) | For Gendebien (D) |
| Invest in Tomorrow Coalition (clean energy) | $420K+ in ads | For Gendebien (D) |
| Your Community PAC (health care) | Not reported | For Gendebien (D) |
| Safety & Affordability PAC | $555K in ads | For Constantino (R) |
Source: Times Union, citing AdImpact and FEC data.
Safety & Affordability PAC is one of the two new super PACs MAGA Inc. funded in September. It received $25 million from MAGA Inc. and had been reported in Arizona and Maine (see MAGA Inc.'s October Blitz). Its appearance in NY-21 is new.
A House Majority PAC spokesman told the Times Union that the group's strategy was to recruit Democrats in "deep, deep red" Trump districts. An Invest in Tomorrow official said the group looks for "shoulder races," where a candidate trails by a few points and outside money might make the race competitive. A recent Siena poll showed Gendebien slightly ahead.
Constantino's campaign says the outside spending shows Gendebien is "controlled by" national Democrats. It has also accused the clean energy group of ties to China because China makes most of the world's solar panels. Gendebien's campaign declined to comment to the Times Union.
NY-18 and NY-19: Republicans pull back
Two Hudson Valley districts held by Democrats show the opposite trend. In the 19th District (Rep. Josh Riley) and the 18th District (Rep. Pat Ryan), Republican challengers have spent about $3 million less than the party's 2024 candidates did, according to FEC data cited by the Times Union. Faso said the party committees put their money where they see the best chances, and that the national environment is "certainly difficult for Republicans this year."
What New York shows
- Money follows perceived opportunity. House Majority PAC's late spending in NY-21 suggests Democrats see a chance in a seat they would normally write off. Less Republican spending in NY-18 and NY-19 suggests the GOP is defending more and attacking less.
- The largest single spender in NY-17 is a super PAC. Congressional Leadership Fund's $11.5 million is more than either party committee spent there.
- MAGA-funded groups are spreading out. Safety & Affordability PAC is now active outside the races where it was first reported.
- Self-funding changes things. Constantino's $17 million makes NY-21 expensive without much help from Republican super PACs.
These figures come from news reports through late October. Final pre-election spending will appear in 24-hour reports through Nov. 3. Full totals arrive with the Dec. 3 post-general reports. For the national picture, see our 2026 Super PAC Tracker, The Republicans Getting the Most Super PAC Support and The Democrats Getting the Most Super PAC Support.